This game will appeal to anyone interested in prediction markets, poker, random trivia, and more. It can be played anywhere, from Super Bowl parties to relaxed nights at the local pub or during long road trips - no equipment necessary.

I've played this game since ~2017 but can't find any reference to it online! Let me know if you're familiar with the game under another name.

Game Mechanics

The game accommodates 3-10+ players, with 5-6 being optimal for dynamic play.

Question Formulation:

A player poses a trivia question with a numerical answer, verifiable online. The person posing the question does not usually know the answer ahead of time.

Example: What is the net worth of the wealthiest cricketer in 2024?

Market Making:

Players take turns clockwise, each stating only the width of their proposed range (corresponding to their level of confidence). For example, if you think the answer is $400 million but you feel very unsure, you'll want to state a larger range, like $250 million. Each new range must be narrower than previous ones.

Example using "What is the net worth of the wealthiest cricketer in 2024?":

  • Player 1: "I'll set a range of $250 million" (Internal thoughts: "I HAVE NO IDEA!")
  • Player 2: "My range is $150 million" (Reasoning: "I know what top NBA/NFL/EPL players are worth, and can make a reasonable guess of the relative position of the top cricketer"
  • Player 3: "I'll set the market at $100 million" (Reasoning: "I have seen reporting on cricket salaries and will extrapolate what sponsorships mean for net worth")

The bidding continues until all other players pass. The final, narrowest range "sets the market".

Resolution:

The player "setting the market" provides the lower and upper bounds of their estimate. The answer is revealed, and if the true value is inside the spread, every other player owes $1 unit to the market maker. If the true value is outside the spread, the market maker owes $1 unit to each and every other player.

Resolution for the cricketer example:

  • The winning, narrowest range is $100 million. The market maker provides an estimate for net worth of $150 to $250 million.
  • The wealthiest cricket player appears to have a net worth of ~$170 million (Sachin Tendulkar), so all other participants now owe the market maker $1 unit.

This process incentivizes players to balance confidence with caution, as setting too narrow a range increases the risk of being wrong.

What Makes for a Good Question?

The more oddball or "out of distribution" a question is from normal life, the better it is for this game. Avoid normal Jeopardy subjects.

  • How many private jets parked at [Churchill Downs/Kentucky Derby, Augusta/The Masters] last year?
  • What is the world record for hard-boiled eggs eaten in 8 minutes?
  • How many kangaroos are estimated to live in Australia?
  • What is the total number of Uber rides given on New Years Eve 2023?
  • How many people were arrested during Mardi Gras festivities in New Orleans last year?
  • How many people applied to LSU (undergraduate) for the last academic year?
  • How many romance novels were e-published on Amazon last year?
  • How many bikes/scooters were pulled out of Amsterdam canals last year?
  • How many total minutes of audio were streamed on Spotify last year?

Why I Like the Game

Participants are rewarded for arcane knowledge, but the more important skill is calibration of uncertainty and mental models. There is a stiff penalty for being overconfident and setting the market, only to miss the mark. You can have fun getting into the head of your opponents and nudging them to overextend their confidence.

As the game goes on, the questions will get more creative and more outlandish.

Notes

Betting tends to turn into a reverse auction style format between two or three people who can offer the smallest range. There is no need to go clockwise once you've gone through a full circle.

There is no need to set the range symmetrically around your "best guess". Instead, consider shifting the range to cover the direction of your uncertainty.

If you already know the answer to a question, you should announce and sit out the round. Feel free to ask clarifying questions when a question is first posed, especially about factors which would impact resolution.